A REVEVIEW OF THE 2010 SAN FRANCISCO TRIBAL ART SHOW, FORT MASON FESTIVAL PAVILION (TRIBALMANIA.COM)

A REVIEW OF THE SAN FRANCISCO TRIBAL ART SHOW

FEB 12th-14th 2010

The market still has a faint heartbeat but could be on "life support" if this decline drags on. With few exceptions, this year's show review is virtually a carbon copy of last years (2009 review). As an insider, the buyers were largely absent again resulting in no discernable improvement in sales over last year. In fact some dealers would tell you it is even worse. Sadly, the market remains deeply depressed. As if we required further confirmation, the New York Tribal show was cancelled because of inadequate dealer participation; direct fallout from poor sales in San Francisco. The market may take years to recover as long as the unemployment rate hovers around ten percent and could take a long time to return to its former level.

This year the Caskey Lees show promoters agreed to an arrangement with show promoter Kim Martindale to hold the annual Marin Show "Art of the Americas" the same week as the San Francisco Tribal show. The Indian show typically happens the week following the Tribal Show. The idea was to add synergy to both shows but mainly to help aid the ailing Art of the Americas show increase its attendance. It was billed as one tickets grants access to two shows totaling 200+ dealers. Although a good idea in theory, nobody seemed pleased. There were already so many events happening during "tribal week" that having a whole other show plus a Bonhams auction equaled a diluted market (for a list of all the events which took place go to: Arte du Monde Sf).

Dealers who used to exhibit or shop at the Marin show the following week were unable to because they were set up at the tribal show. Consequently, dealer participation and attendance suffered at the Marin show. The obvious solution would be to move the "Art of the Americas" show next door to the Tribal show in the Herbst Pavilion in Fort Mason Center. In short too much was happening and you would have had to clone yourself to take it all in.

Attendance seemed down this year as well. There was a notable decline Saturday evening with largely vacant isles! Very few Europeans came this year. I can recall in 2008 and previously, Festival Pavilion would at times swell with visitors making it difficult to navigate through the isles. At times I remember exiting my booth to make room for the influx of visitors. No so this year.

One dealer told me "it was like throwing a party and nobody came". He was largely referring to those key collectors who have shifted from buying to selling. The truth is that many dealers had pieces on consignment from collectors who either wanted to sell or needed to sell because of financial difficulties.

The quality of the material, although high, was not as good as past years. That is not an easy statement to make but it is accurate. There were few breathtaking African pieces and the Indonesian material was notably weak. This year it appeared that two thirds of the Tribal dealers brought old inventory. Other dealers worked twice as hard to show fresh material. While that mix doesn't make for the most exciting art experience for collectors, it is perfectly understandable in a down market. As dealer's sales have shrunk by half or more, they're replenishing inventory at a much slower rate. That is especially devastating to the market since about two out of three sales are to other dealers. The dealers are the engine of the market and right now we're stuck in neutral. Only a few dealers sold well, largely because they brought fresh pieces and/or were selling near cost.

Just as in real estate, we've reached the equivalent of a buyers market for Tribal Art. But buyer's markets don't last forever so it is currently a golden opportunity for astute collectors and contrarian investors.

To be fair to the dealers, another explanation for the shortage of stellar pieces could be the following. When a dealer has a newly discovered great object it is often wise to hold it close to their vest and only offer it to the highest and best source. The surest way to kill a great piece is by exposing it. The show is four days long if you include opening night. So if that spectacular piece sits all that time and doesn't sell, that is a bad thing for its long term marketability. It is just a matter of perception but buyer psychology is everything. We've all heard, "we'll if it is such a great piece how come it hasn't sold?".

Photos courtesy of Amyas Naegele and Michael Auliso